J.P. Morgan Private Bank: Top Three Macro Themes in 2026
The private banking arm of J.P. Morgan gave its outlook for 2026, highlighting the leading themes that will shape the coming year for investors.
«Uncertainty defined the market narrative» in 2025, according to a note by Grace Peters, co-head of global investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. And in 2026, she added that there will be a shift in how economies operate and that will require a «refreshed investment playbook, one that blends discipline with flexibility».
First, artificial intelligence (AI) will be a major driver and the bank believes that the current boom is underpinned by «solid fundamentals rather than speculative excess», underlining that underexposure is the greatest risk.
Second, globalization is receding and investors must focus on resilience and strategic diversification with opportunities in Asia, including India and in Taiwan’s technology and export sectors as well as AI, consumer platforms and electric vehicles in China.
Third, inflation persists and it has become a central consideration for long-term portfolio performance. Investors must navigate a new regime shaped by structural drivers such as capacity gaps, robust consumer balance sheets, supply chain resilience and fiscal activism.
Market Outlook
In the US, J.P. Morgan Private Bank predicts that the S&P 500 will deliver double-digit returns again in 2026. Elsewhere, the bank has high convictions in India, European industrials and China AI-related names.
Alternatives are also expected to play a crucial role in portfolios with a preference for diversification into less correlated macro hedge funds, gold and infrastructure.
