WGC: Gold Forecasted to Stay Rangebound in Second Half
Gold prices have seen a phenomenal run thus far in 2025 but the rally could experience a pause in the second half of the year, according to a report by the World Gold Council.
In the second half of 2025, gold could remain rangebound, according to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC). Based on the WGC’s Gold Valuation Framework and consensus expectations for key macro variables, the precious metal’s price will be roughly 0 to 5 percent higher than current levels, resulting in an annual return of 25 to 30 percent.
It cites technical indicators suggesting a consolidation phase with falling interest rates, continued uncertainty and central bank demand being offset by curbed consumer demand and potential recycling due to elevated prices.
Bull, Bear Cases
In a bull case where economic or financial conditions deteriorate further with a scenario of a more severe stagflationary environment or outright recession, WGC forecasts that gold prices could rise 10 to 15 percent higher in the second half. And in a bear case, gold could fall 12 to 17 percent from reduced hedges due to sustainable geopolitical and geoeconomic conflict resolution, though this is viewed as unlikely.
«In all, given the intrinsic limitations of forecasting the global economy, we believe that gold – through its fundamentals – remains well positioned to support tactical and strategic investment decisions in the current macro landscape,» WGC concluded.
