The Race to Quantum’s First Breakthrough Use Case

The Race to Quantum’s First Breakthrough Use Case

With the market for quantum hardware projected to exceed $21 billion within the next two decades, investors and corporates are now asking the pivotal question: which industries will unlock the first transformative, revenue-generating use case?

Across the technology sector, speculation is intensifying over the first breakthrough application – the so-called «killer app» – that could push quantum computing into mainstream adoption.

IDTechEx’s latest analysis, based on conference research and interviews across the quantum value chain, highlights a shortlist of high-potential candidates.

Quantum Chemistry Emerges as the Early Front-Runner

Among all surveyed industries, quantum chemistry and materials science stand out as the most credible near-term winners. Quantum computers have already demonstrated proof-of-concept simulations – from Google Quantum AI to Quantinuum – modelling problems that are exponentially difficult for classical machines, such as the Ising model.

These capabilities could accelerate the discovery of new magnetic materials, battery chemistries, industrial chemicals, and more effective pharmaceuticals. As a result, investment from chemical, pharma, and automotive firms has surged over the past five to ten years.

Broad Opportunity With Uncertain Quantum Advantage

Optimization problems – such as supply-chain planning, energy-grid allocation, portfolio construction, and logistics workflows – are another frequently cited quantum opportunity.

D-Wave, the leading commercial player in quantum annealing, has demonstrated several early use-cases with partners across telecoms, food production, and industrial R&D. However, experts warn that the theoretical basis for quantum speedup in optimization remains less robust, and improvements in classical algorithms continue to narrow the gap.

Cybersecurity – the Most Disruptive Long-Term Threat

No application looms larger – or carries more geopolitical significance – than quantum computing’s potential to break widely used encryption standards.

A recent study by Google Quantum AI indicates that RSA-2048 encryption – foundational to secure internet communications – could be cracked in less than a week using a machine with under one million noisy qubits.

This is a dramatic reduction from the 20 million qubits estimated in 2019, driven not by hardware improvements but by advances in quantum algorithms.

With leading hardware companies targeting the one-million-qubit milestone in the early 2030s, the probability of a «Q-Day» event within the decade has increased. Governments and large corporations are now accelerating the adoption of quantum-safe security protocols.

Commercial Inflection Point

As quantum hardware scales and error-correction techniques improve, stakeholders are demanding tangible, commercially relevant use cases. IDTechEx’s report, «Quantum Computing Market 2026–2046», maps the most promising hardware approaches, expected technological milestones, and likely adoption trajectories across industries.

The report’s conclusions are clear:

• Quantum chemistry is the strongest candidate for the first true «killer application», with material impact for chemicals, pharma, and automotive.
• Optimization applications hold vast economic potential but face methodological uncertainty.
• Cybersecurity risks remain a powerful long-term catalyst, particularly for national-level quantum programmes.

Quantum computing is approaching a pivotal phase where early commercial applications could begin delivering measurable returns – and reshape competitive dynamics across multiple industries.

Whether the breakthrough emerges in chemistry, logistics, or cybersecurity, the next decade will be decisive in determining who captures the first-mover advantage in this fast-accelerating field.