Gary Dugan: «Reputation, Trust And Presence Matter as Much as Returns»

Gary Dugan: «Reputation, Trust And Presence Matter as Much as Returns»

The Gulf States are no longer an easy win – wealth managers must deeply immerse themselves in the region: In this interview, Gary Dugan, CEO of The Global CIO Office in Dubai, discusses the growing complexity in the GCC, the impact of geopolitical tensions, opportunities beyond the oil sector – and why patience, cultural understanding, and regional presence pay off twice over.

Written by Gérard Al-Fil, Dubai 

Gary, it looks like wealth management is a profitable one-way street in the Gulf region, as the region is booming. Correct?

Wealth management is indeed thriving in the Gulf. While the region benefits from booming hydrocarbon revenues and government-driven reforms, the opportunity lies in navigating complexity. Clients are increasingly sophisticated, demanding institutional-quality advice, global access, and rigorous due diligence. It’s a market where reputation, trust, and on-the-ground presence matter as much as investment returns. For firms that combine regional expertise with a global perspective, the Gulf offers longevity in client relationships.

How has the trade-tariff dispute between the US and China been affecting the GCC investment climate so far in capital markets and in private equity?

The US-China trade and tariff tensions have indirectly influenced the GCC investment climate by reshaping global capital flows and trade dynamics. On one hand, they’ve added volatility to equity markets, especially in export-oriented sectors. On the other, they’ve accelerated international interest in establishing a base in the GCC. We see increased cross-border private equity opportunities.

Keywords: lower oil prices. The barrel (Brent) seems to hover above $60, but the global economic environment favours rather lower oil prices.  

Lower-for-longer oil prices continue to cast a long shadow over the GCC investment narrative. While Brent above $60 is sustainable for some budgets, it’s insufficient to fund long-term fiscal ambitions of others without reform. For investors, such an outcome means prioritizing sectors that are insulated from oil price volatility, like logistics, renewables, fintech, and healthcare. Sovereign wealth funds have also been recalibrating their investments toward global diversification, which influences domestic capital markets through improved governance and better disclosure standards.

After years of inflation, will we face a period of deflation, and what would this mean for the mostly dollar-pegged GCC countries?

Deflation is not yet a base case, but if it does emerge –especially through declining global demand or over-tight monetary policy – it poses unique challenges to the GCC. Most local currencies are pegged to the US dollar, which means GCC central banks import US monetary conditions.

«The GCC has the greater potential. Singapore will continue to provide a niche role in Southeast Asia.»

In a deflationary world, real interest rates could rise sharply, undermining credit growth and public investment. We believe this would necessitate even more aggressive structural reforms to maintain momentum in non-oil sectors and employment creation. 

How can investors reap benefits from the transformation of the Gulf states towards 4IR, knowledge, and service economies?

The Gulf’s pivot toward knowledge economies and Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) themes is fertile ground for investors if they are selective. Opportunities abound in digital infrastructure, AI-driven services, education technology, and clean energy. Governments are acting as both capital providers and off-takers, de-risking private investment. Long-term investors can benefit by aligning with national transformation plans such as Saudi Vision 2030 or UAE’s economic diversification strategies. Private capital, especially from family offices, is increasingly interested in these frontier themes.

You have been working in the GCC and in Singapore. What are the common grounds for doing business in both the Middle East and Southeast Asia?

Both the GCC and Singapore reward patience, relationship-building, and cultural fluency. In both regions, family businesses dominate, and trust is paramount. Decision-making often sits with a small group of principals, not institutional committees. What works well in both contexts is a high-touch, high-trust advisory model underpinned by clear value delivery.

«What works in Jakarta may not work in Riyadh.» 

Moreover, both regions share an openness to global capital and ideas, while still protecting local nuance and identity in business interactions. Given the openness of the GCC to inward immigration I strongly believe that the GCC has the greater potential. Singapore will continue to provide a niche role in Southeast Asia trade and wealth management.

And what are the differences between the two investors have to take care of?

The differences are material and strategic. Southeast Asia is more decentralized, with different regulatory environments and economic maturity across countries like Singapore, Indonesia, and Vietnam. The GCC is more centralized, often driven by sovereign agendas and public-private collaboration. In Southeast Asia, the emphasis is on demographic growth and consumer markets. In the Gulf, it’s on infrastructure, global connectivity, and sovereign reinvestment. Investors must calibrate strategies accordingly – what works in Jakarta may not work in Riyadh. 

How can The Global CIO Office help newcomers find their way through the financial desert in the Middle East so they reach the oasis of profitability?

At The Global CIO Office, we provide truly independent advice, given we are not aligned with any large financial institution. We blend the best global practices with intimate regional insight, helping newcomers translate ambition into action. Whether it’s setting up a compliant investment platform, building a Shariah-aligned product suite, or connecting with the right family offices and institutions, we serve as a partner in building enduring success. Our bespoke research and due diligence capabilities allow investors to avoid costly missteps and seize the real opportunities beneath the headlines. 

Gary Dugan is founder & CEO of The Global CIO Office, Dubai, UAE. He has over 40 years’ experience. He is the former CIO and MD at J.P. Morgan, Barclays, Merrill Lynch, Emirates NBD (Dubai), FAB, Coutts.