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After last year's downbeat banking year, many bankers are likely to be quaking at the thought of bonus season. finews.asia reports on who instead has reason for cheer.

Scarcely have the decorations been put away, the tree recycled, and the calendar replaced, bankers begin gearing up for bonus season. February is annual results times, but it is also the month in which bankers are told what their share of the performance-based bonus pot is.

Bonus season for 2018 is likely to be a more muted affair, as bonus indicators point downward. Deutsche Bank is curtailing its year-end scheme by 10 percent, according to «Bloomberg». To be sure, some bankers whom Deutsche is desperate to keep are expected to win roughly as much bonus as in 2017, while others will suffer a cut of considerably more than 10 percent.

Mixed Feelings in the City

The tone in London is bonuses might surge, tumble, or remain stagnant – that's the findings from the first three quarters of 2018 by British financial market analysts Tricumen on behalf of industry website «efinancialcareers».

Specifically, the analysts expect bonuses at Credit Suisse in equity capital markets and mergers-and-acquisitions to rise. By contrast, the Swiss bank's debt capital market bond and loan bankers, securitization, cash equities, equity derivatives and prime services will suffer, according to Tricumen.

At UBS, investment bankers in securitization, M&A, foreign exchange trading, and prime services have reason to rejoice, those in bonds and credit as well as advisory, less so.

Uneven Swiss Results

What about bankers in Switzerland? Philippe Tschannen, managing partner and global practice leader of financial services at Stanton Chase isn't optimistic. He doesn't have specific numbers, but said, «My gut feeling is that 2018/2019 is going to be another austere year in terms of bonuses.»