The outflow of people and capital is seeing signs of early momentum as the U.K. follows through on its commitment to open doors for potential citizenship to nearly 3 million Hong Kongers. finews.asia reviews the latest developments.

Every week, 3,000 British National Overseas (BNO) citizens in Hong Kong have been applying for the five-year immigration scheme that could lead to citizenship, according to a report by U.K. media firm «The Times» earlier this month citing leaked figures.

35,000 of Hong Kong’s BNO citizens applied in the first ten weeks since the scheme launched in January this year.

Outpacing Forecasts

Assuming that all applications are approved and materialize into real migration without accounting for dependents, the current rate if maintained would already surpass the British government’s forecast that up to 153,700 Hong Kongers could arrive over the first year and 322,400 over five years. 

In total, a maximum of nearly 5.4 million Hong Kongers qualify for the path towards full U.K. citizenship with around 350,000 current BNO passport holders, another 2.5 million eligible applicants and 2.5 million dependents.  

Population Decline

Data from the official census also suggests similar trends with the city recording a very rare case of population decline from 7.52 million in 2019 to 7.47 million in 2020. In addition to deaths surpassing births, Hong Kong also saw an outflow of 49,900 residents partially offset by an inflow of 10,100. 

Figures from the Education Bureau also suggest that outflows could be attributable to families seeking new homes as the number of primary and secondary school students fell 19,379, or 3.27 percent, with the international school student population posting a sharper drop of 7.45 percent.

Conservatively assuming for the average household size of 2.8, the total student population decline could represent more than 50,000 families in Hong Kong deciding to take their children out of school. 

Home Buying Spree

Similarly, U.K.’s property market is seeing tailwinds from Hong Kongers who accounted for 8.5 percent of all purchases by foreigners in prime central London last year, according to property consultancy Knight Frank – the second-largest group behind the French (14.6 percent).

Separately, an «SCMP» report citing one of London’s largest independent agents, Benham and Reeves, estimated that Hong Kongers accounted for 4 percent of all London homes sold (1,932 units) between July 2020 and March 2021 with a total value of £959 million ($1.3 billion), a more than 2.5-fold surge compared to the same period last year.

Capital Outflow Estimates

Using the British government’s forecast, Bank of America previously estimated that capital outflows could total $36 billion in the first year and more than $75 billion over five years. 

More recently, «Bloomberg» made a more conservative estimation on emigration – up to 16,300 households or around 45,640 individuals in the first year – which could result in $19.3 billion generated from home sales alone.

Deal Sweeteners

In addition to concerns about political uncertainty, the U.K. is also boosting benefits to further lure Hong Kongers including a recently announced launch of a £43 million fund for better integration including the usage of 12 «welcome hubs» to support access to housing, education and employment.  

«This new visa route reflects the UK’s historic and moral commitment to those people of Hong Kong who chose to retain their ties to the U.K. by taking up BNO status,» said the British government which estimates a «net benefit» of up to £2.9 billion for the country.

«[They] will be expected to be self-sufficient and contribute to U.K. society and the implementation of this visa is estimated to have a net positive impact on the UK.»