Hong Kongers seeking emigration to the U.K. via their British National (Overseas) visas are set to generate tens of billions of dollars from home sales in the world’s most expensive real estate market.
About 13,000 to 16,300 households in the city could move to the U.K. via BNO this year, according to a report by «Bloomberg Intelligence», which accounts for 0.9 to 1.1 percent of all households in privately owned homes.
Assuming they all sell their properties for emigration, this could generate a maximum of HK$150 billion ($19.3 billion) in 2021 alone.
Hong Kong Outflows
At 16,300 households, this represents around 45,640 individuals when assuming for the average household size of 2.8, according to local census data.
This contrasts sharply with estimates from the British Home Office, which expects 153,000 BNO status holders – alongside their dependents – to arrive in the U.K. this year.
Using these figures, Bank of America separately estimated that Hong Kong could see up to $36.1 billion in total capital outflows in the first year. Using the same British Home Office figures, BofA estimated that five-year outflows could exceed $75 billion.
Capital Clampdown
BofA’s figures include the withdrawal of Hong Kong’s pension scheme, better known locally as the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) – a retirement fund made up of investments financed by individuals’ monthly income contributions. While most are unable to make any withdrawal prior to retirement, some who can prove they are permanently leaving the city can do so.
But authorities are ramping up pressure to prohibit MPF providers from allowing withdrawals to those that use BNO as evidence, citing the local government’s refusal to recognize the travel document as the reason.
