Employees at Credit Suisse and UBS, along with the media and politicians, are still in the dark about what the «new UBS» will look like, but the course is being set behind the scenes. What can we expect at the end of the month?

According to the official version, UBS postponed its half-year results until the end of August because it needs the time to prepare consolidated results for investors and the public. But that's probably only half of the story.

Instead, UBS is using the time to create a fait accompli without exposing itself to broad public discussion.

Reports on the integration of Credit Suisse into UBS have been numerous in recent weeks, although always anecdotal. Seemingly by design, a clear line, strategy, or confirmed details don't emerge. This is likely by design.

The Hidden Big Picture

There are reports that in London, Hong Kong, or Singapore, a team of investment bankers, wealth managers, and private equity or fixed income experts join Bank X, Y, or Z. Here and there, new management levels are added, while reshuffled elsewhere.

Russian clients of Credit Suisse are on the UBS hit list, while its credit business in Asia is combed through for risky exposure. Individual reports or memos cite «sources» while the big picture remains obscured. UBS has so far commented on almost nothing, instead referring to August 31 when it will reveal what's behind the curtain.

The Carousel Turns More Slowly

But that's a month away. While the personnel carousel in Switzerland is turning more slowly, the opposite is true in New York, London, Hong Kong, and Singapore with a more immediate impact.

A few weeks ago, media speculation was that ten percent of the staff in Credit Suisse's investment banking had already left. That figure is no doubt higher now.

A Dense Fog

A clear answer to the question of how many of the 120,000 jobs at the two banks will remain at the end of the integration, however, won't be available at the end of August.

Instead, references to ongoing social plans, normal fluctuation, restructuring, or retirements engulf statements on future staffing levels like a dense fog.

The Field is Prepared

The public's already been shocked and has seemingly discounted reports of up to 35,000 job cuts. Even now, outrage is limited.

Public perception seems to be that mainly foreign jobs will be affected while the majority of Swiss positions are spared.

A Tight Muzzle

There's been little of substance to report from the political sphere since the initial round of outrage in the Council of States and the National Council at the beginning of April. The investigation of the Credit Suisse case has been delegated to the Parliamentary Investigation Commission (PUK), which is keeping a lid on information until tangible results are available.

That will take time - almost certainly beyond the parliamentary elections in the fall. It would be presumptuous for individual politicians to make demands or call for consequences during the election campaign before the PUK has done its work.

Nothing to Shake

When UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti appears before the media at the end of August, there will hardly be anything left to shake about the result.

Fait accompli!