The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse will result in wealth outflows that total more than $120 billion, according to a Citi estimate.
Credit Suisse will likely lose about one-fifth of assets in its wealth management business, according to a note by Citi analysts led by Nicholas Herman, or around 110 billion francs ($123 billion).
In the worst-case scenario, the estimated figure could reach one-third, or 162 billion francs, due to cultural differences between UBS and Credit Suisse leading to increased attrition or rivals successfully luring bankers and clients.
Citi said it estimates that the combined entity will result in $5.4 billion of lost annual revenue and also does not expect resumed share buybacks before 2026.
Main Beneficiary
According to Citi, Julius Baer will benefit the most from Credit Suisse’s private banking outflows and is forecasted to capture at least 10 billion francs.
The Swiss rival is «back in hiring mode» with expectations to hire 200 new staff in 2023.
